The Texas deer hunting forecast is always “good,” though that statement comes with a caveat.
In terms of quality and quantity, there’s no place like the Lone Star State for deer hunters. We’ve still got the largest population estimate in the country and there is no shortage of big bucks from the top of Texas to the bottom.
That being said, most biologists and land managers will point to another “average” season, especially this early in the summer. However, there are a number of factors that mean average will again be good for many reasons.
Here’s a look at this fall’s whitetail and mule deer seasons, including a glimpse at some regulation changes.
Texas White-Tailed Deer Outlook
Alan Cain, the whitetail program leader for the Texas Parks & Wildlife Department, again said that this fall and winter will be on par with previous seasons in most whitetail hot beds across the state.
“The statewide deer population is going to be right around that 4.3 million to 4.6 million range. If you look at statewide trends, it’s slowly creeping up each year,” he said. “The Hill Country still has the highest estimate at about 2.6 million. There’s one particular management unit in the Llano-Mason area that has the highest deer density in the state, roughly 285 per 1,000 acres. We always recommend hunters to use their tags, especially doe tags, in those areas with higher numbers. This should be another good year for hunters in terms of how much venison they can put in the freezer.”
Cain noted that weather patterns from the summer of 2017 through the summer of 2018 were inconsistent, with the obvious landfall of Hurricane Harvey in August 2017 having an impact on some portions of the state deer herd.
“We didn’t have any significant reports of adult mortality or fawn mortality (as a result of Harvey). That doesn’t mean it didn’t occur, but the Deer Management Unit in the Houston area that runs east toward the Louisiana border and up into the Pineywoods did receive significant flooding as a result of the hurricane,” Cain said. “I think what that ultimately did is displace a lot of deer in that area and a lot of them were able to get out and get to higher ground. We did see a reduction in deer densities in that area but that’s due to not being able to run all of our surveys in that area.”
Other areas of the state that also were inundated with moisture as a result of the hurricane saw differing effects from the storm.
“There also was lots of rain around Victoria and back toward other parts of the Post Oak Savannah, and even with all that moisture, we still had decent deer numbers in that region,” Cain said. “You’re looking at still being above 60 deer per 1,000 acres in those areas, which is still high density for that country. I talked to a colleague in the Weimar area and they had about 20 inches of rain during the hurricane and shortly thereafter. He said that within a week or two after the storm passed the ground was dry again and they were even seeing cracks in the soil. That’s how dry it had been prior. Basically, the deer moved out of the bottoms and low-lying areas during the flooding event and recovered. Fawn crops were still comparable to what they were in the past in those areas, which means there should be no long-term issues moving forward.”
While the general deer hunting outlook typically rests mainly on range conditions in the winter, spring and summer before the fall season, it has been an odd year as a whole, Cain noted.
“It really has just been an inconsistent year for rainfall statewide. There was a patchwork of dry and green, dry and green, and then it would change,” he said. “Some areas had decent winter conditions – deer were coming off the rut in good shape – and then other areas were dry. Then, you had it flipped going into the summer when it started getting really hot, so it’s just been an unusual situation.
“I think what that means is we’ll have a good year, not exceptional necessarily, but deer got off to a decent start, and most places had decent range conditions this spring. There was good browse and forbs available even it went dormant as it got hot. In South Texas (during the summer), I’m seeing mesquites with blooms on them, which leads me to believe we’ll have a good mesquite bean crop, which is always good especially if it stays hot.”
While hunters in places like the Hill Country and South Texas can always expect to count on plenty of numbers, it should be another good year for antler quality, Cain noted. That’s due in large part to the animals available that have gotten some age on them, he said.
““In general, across the state, we had good fawn crops in 2010 and 2013, so that would translate into more 5½-year-old and 8½-year-old bucks, relative to other age classes out there,” Cain said. “I think most people would be happy with a 5½-year-old deer in most places, regardless if that’s the Pineywoods or South Texas.”
While quantity typically has been the name of the game in Texas deer hunting – and it will surely continue to top the list of many hunters – more folks are getting into quality management, Cain said. That’s a positive aspect for the pursuit as a whole.
“Over the past five years, roughly 14 percent to 17 percent of the buck harvest has been composed of bucks that are at least 5½ years old,” Cain said. “The majority of the harvest, 43 percent to 44 percent, is composed of bucks that are 3½ or 4½ years, based on survey and antler data we collect. That’s good for hunters and that means they’re not killing a bunch of young bucks. They’re letting them walk and it’s also in part to the antler restrictions we have in 117 counties. I also think a large part is most hunters and landowners taking an interest in deer management, which is a good thing.”
Cain noted that while other areas of the country have seen some declines in hunter participation, Texas has remained strong in terms of the number of folks who head afield each fall and winter in pursuit of backstraps and bone.
“Texas been pretty stable in terms of hunter participation when it comes to deer. We haven’t seen impacts in other places like the Northeast and Southeast where hunter numbers are declining,” Cain said. “The hunter figure has been right around 690,000 to 700,000+ most years so there’s still a lot of hunters and a lot of opportunity. We’re always looking at ways to expand hunting opportunities as well as make sure the regulations aren’t too restrictive. I think we still offer a pretty flexible bag limit across the state, depending on what county you’re hunting.”
Cain also pointed out that state biologists are always available to help hunters and landowners with their harvest initiatives and future plans.
“If hunters and landowners are unsure about how many deer they should harvest on their lease or ranch, consider contacting the local TPWD wildlife biologist to discuss possible deer survey options and deer harvest recommendations,” he said. “Establishing a population estimate on the hunting property can help hunters better manage the deer herd in their localized area and meet deer or hunting management goals.”
Texas Mule Deer Outlook
Mule deer hunting in Texas has been on a decline in recent seasons, with some notable hot spots simply not producing the quality and quantity that they previously had. Biologists have monitored the situation for a number of years, proposing some changes to hunting regulations.
The most notable is a move approved in May by the Texas Parks and Wildlife Commission involving the establishment of setting a 20-inch minimum outside antler spread of the main beams restriction on mule deer bucks in Briscoe, Childress, Cottle, Floyd, Motley and Hall counties.
Shawn Gray, Mule Deer and Pronghorn Program Leader with TPWD, noted that the muley population, in particular the buck figure, is in tough shape in some notable areas of the Rolling Plains and Panhandle.
“Over the last 20 to 25 years in the Southeast Panhandle, excessive buck harvest has occurred primarily because of increased lease hunting and the popularity of mule deer hunting,” he said. “This success of buck harvest has affected the mule deer sex ratio in the area, with our survey data indicating a postseason sex ratio of five to six does per buck. In addition, intensive buck harvest has also impacted the buck age structure and data highlight the fact that mature mule deer bucks in the Southeast Panhandle are rare. Because of this, staff over the last several years have received many requests from landowners and hunters to improve the buck age structure of the mule deer herd in this area of the Panhandle.
Gray noted that most western states have tried an antler and point restriction, such as a minimum of four points on one side, with no significant improvement in buck age structure. This is because many young deer meet these minimum requirements, he said.
“We are proposing a different antler restriction criteria. Using the white-tailed deer antler restriction as a model, staff have collected data on mule deer captured during ongoing research projects and hunter-harvested mule deer in the Panhandle to estimate the ear-tip-to-ear-tip spread of bucks standing in the alert position,” Gray said. “The average ear-tip-to-ear-tip spread for mule deer bucks standing in the alert position is 21 inches. Our main goal is to get more mule deer bucks into older age classes. Most unbranched antlered bucks are yearlings, and allowing more yearlings to be harvested can significantly impact future buck age structure, especially during drought.
“Mule deer populations are much lower than white-tailed deer populations, and can be more sensitive to overharvest. Preliminary data analysis suggests that an antler restriction with an outside spread of 20 inches should protect at least 80 percent of 1½- to 3½-year-old bucks, and about 90 percent of bucks 5 years old would be available for harvest.”
Gray said the antler restriction will not apply to MLDP properties. As part of the MLDP Program, TPWD sets property specific bag limits for muleys, and they’re generally conservative, he noted.
Hunters again are reminded of regulations aimed at chronic wasting disease testing. Hunters who take mule deer, whitetails, elk, red deer or other CWD susceptible species within the Trans-Pecos, Panhandle, and South-Central Texas CWD Containment and Surveillance Zones are required to bring their animals to a TPWD check station within 48 hours. TPWD also continues to urge voluntary sampling of hunter-harvested deer outside these zones.
